Photo by Gary Clancy

This fall, as the days grow shorter and the natural cycles slide into full swing, millions of ducks and geese will take wing and thrill hunters throughout the Central Flyway once again. Bird numbers will be good, and good hunting will follow. But duck numbers probably aren't quite as good as last year.

Ducks are expected to be down, while many goose populations will remain, in some instances, too good.

Biologists have been looking at the age structures of ducks in the Central Flyway, and what those numbers tell U.S. Fish and Wildlife Biologist and Central Flyway Representative Dave Sharp, is that ducks are in a downward spiral right now.

"One of the best pieces of data is where we look at age ratios of young from the harvest last year," said Sharp. "They were below average. This year I would expect lower duck populations across the board, including the mallard. I am expecting harvest to be down."

All of that has to be said with the understanding that some conditions could change. A lot of it depends on what the birds do under fall weather conditions: They can fly right through an entire range of states if a severe arctic blast sweeps down, or they can lounge around under sunny skies and warm temperatures for weeks.

The number of waterfowl in a particular area will fluctuate quite a bit in response to weather. The federal Conservation Reserve Program has been a big help in stemming the long-term downward slide of bird numbers, but that program is always in danger of being reduced or gutted, especially when you consider the huge budget deficits now running in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually.

"The CRP is really in good shape on the U.S. side of things," said Sharp. "But it is up for review. The habitat conditions in general in the Dakotas and eastern Montana are excellent. We just don't have the wetlands to go with it this year. Canada is a different story. They don't have a CRP program. Farming has had an impact up in that end of the world."

For geese, the situation is different, so far. They nest much farther north in Canada, where farming hasn't taken hold in a big way, so their nesting grounds are still intact. In fact, snow goose numbers have exploded, such that they actually damage their nesting grounds by feeding too heavily. There have even been controversial spring seasons with high bag limits to reduce the snow goose population.

Here's what state waterfowl biologists expect for the coming waterfowl seasons in the Great Plains.

NORTH DAKOTA
North Dakota also is lighter on local duck populations than has been the case the past few years. But by October, the situation turns hectic, no matter what. Local birds mix in with ducks coming down from Canada, and that will likely result in the usual good duck hunting this fall.

"There is a lot of movement by birds during fall," said Mike Szymanski, waterfowl biologist with the North Dakota Game and Fish Department. "It is often called the 'fall shuffle,' where you get hatch-year birds flying north. They are going all over the place. When you shoot a duck, you never know where it came from. They do that to time food resources."

In fact, some of the North Dakota ducks even fly north for a while during fall. Confusing behavior, perhaps -- but it serves a purpose that has been ingrained into the instinctual centers of duck brains over the millennia.